As Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya draw to a close, where will our next war be?
War is the most efficient manner of redistributing wealth from the people to the industrialists. It has always been thus. It is the foot soldier that gets killed, and the financier/industrialist and politician that gets rich (is it just coincidence that the most warlike British politician in recent decades, Tony Blair, is now a multi-millionaire?).
But wars have an annoying habit of ending. As they are now in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. So what next? One thing I guarantee is that there will be another war to replace them. The question is, where?
Syria? Unlikely; there is an insufficient oil incentive. Helping the people is never a reason, although sometimes an excuse. Oil is the usual reason (Libya) and helping the people the excuse (Libya). It doesn’t work in Syria.
Iran? More likely. Oil is a reason. But helping the people is no obvious excuse. This doesn’t matter since there are other excuses. Iran’s repeated desire to remove Israel from the map coupled with it’s imminent potential to do so with nuclear weaponry is a pretty good excuse.
There are other candidates and other excuses (although same basic reason) in countries like Mexico and Venezuela – but the pre-war drip-drip propaganda preparation has not got going yet.
So best bet is Iran. We are being prepared. News is leaking out that while the west has been self-absorbed with its economic problems, Iran has forged ahead with its nuclear plans. Does it already have nuclear war-heads? Some say yes, some say soon. Others say that the window of opportunity for the West is closing. But a land invasion is hardly feasible from where we stand today. So how?
A surgical air strike from Israel heavily supported by the USA and the UK is my bet. This will either take out the Iranian nuclear capability, or more likely just promote the start of war. UKUSA will then be able to invade from both Iraq and Afghanistan. Other middle eastern countries will need to take sides or stay out. Most I suspect, will stay out – leaving Iran isolated.
Hamas, however, will launch a rocket attack on Israel. Israel will be forced to invade Gaza and also Syria. Turkey will probably be dragged in. It is likely to side with Israel so that it can solve its own Syrian border problems despite its current issues with Israel. This little local difficulty has the potential to solve the whole middle eastern problem – all of the oil will come under US influence. Let’s just hope that China and Russia stay out of things.
So that’s it. Expect it to start possibly as early as the new year, probably around spring, but almost certainly before the end of 2012.
And as ever, it is we and our children (on all sides) that will get killed; and the industrialists and politicians that will get rich.